The Overberg, El Niño and our veldfire risk management  

THE BIG PICTURE

A strong El Niño weather event is developing and is expected to last throughout the 2026/27 summer season. Across South Africa, this will bring unusually high temperatures, hot days and below-normal rainfall.  

(Synopsis:  El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter 2026-27, as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.) 

Key regional & local risks 

 

  • Wildfires: Extremely high temperatures, low rainfall and dry vegetation will create dangerous wildfire conditions – especially during the grain harvest season and in mountain catchment areas. High winds could rapidly spread fires toward towns, farms and nature reserves. Non-agricultural areas in rural regions are included in this risk.
  • Water shortages: High temperatures will cause faster evaporation from reservoirs and dams. Increased water usage from farms, households, cooling systems and firefighting operations will place heavy strain on local water supplies. Adjustments need to be made right now.
  • Impact on farming: The dry and hot conditions could severely harm crop and livestock production, requiring farmers to adopt soil and water conservation techniques.
  • Health hazards: Prolonged hot weather increases risks of heatwaves, heat stress and dehydration, while localised heavy winter storms earlier in the season may increase flood risks in low-lying areas.

Projected timeline 

September 2026 (Moderate Risk):

Seasonal transition period; weather conditions require close monitoring.

October 2026 – March 2027 (High Risk):

Peak impact period with maximum heat, reduced rainfall, high fire risk and water scarcity.

Action & Response Plan 

  • Emergency readiness: Keep firefighters, response vehicles and firefighting aircraft on high alert for an extended fire season.
  • Fire & water management: Enforce local firebreak rules, track dam levels, and prepare contingency plans for potential municipal water restrictions.
  • Public awareness: Educate communities on saving water, fire prevention and staying safe during extreme heat.

Preparation and actions by role players 

• The Western Cape Provincial Government, the Premier and the Cabinet – through the Disaster Management Centre – have prepared a “Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy”. The plan includes funding provisions.

• The Overberg District Municipality and all local municipalities are included in the aforementioned plan.

• goFPA (and all other Western Cape FPAs) anticipates financial support for the creation of strategic firebreaks and the purchase of “bakkie-mounted tanks” (skid units) to enhance on-the-ground capacity.